Evaluating Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater and Agricultural Sustainability in Bani Waleed, Libya
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37375/susj.v16i1.4132Keywords:
climate change, groundwater depletion, agricultural sustainability, drought indices, North Africa, Libya, SPI, GRACE, NDVI, climate adaptationAbstract
Climate change poses significant challenges to water resources and agricultural sustainability in arid regions, particularly in groundwater-dependent systems such as Libya. This study develops an integrated, causal framework to assess the interactions among climate variability, groundwater depletion, and agricultural performance in Bani Waleed. Long-term climate data, GRACE satellite observations, NDVI-based vegetation indicators, and farmer survey data were analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Results indicate a significant warming trend and increasing drought intensity driven by evapotranspiration. Groundwater levels declined by 0.3–0.5 m/year, with a cumulative loss of ~150 mm. SEM results show that climate stress strongly affects groundwater (β = −0.68), which in turn influences agricultural performance (β = 0.57), with a substantial indirect effect (β = −0.39). The model explains 62% of agricultural variability (R² = 0.62). Findings highlight groundwater as the primary mediator of climate impacts, emphasizing the need for water-centered adaptation and sustainable groundwater management strategies.References
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