Quantitative Consequence Analysis and Emergency Planning for Propane Storage Incidents: A Framework for Major Hazard Installations
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37375/susj.v16i1.4135Keywords:
Consequence Analysis, BLEVE, Vapour Cloud Explosion, Jet Fire, Emergency Planning, Probit Analysis, Major Hazards, Process SafetyAbstract
This study presents a detailed quantitative consequence analysis for a major hazard installation storing 30 tonnes of propane. Thermal radiation and overpressure effects from potential catastrophic scenarios including a Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion (BLEVE), a sustained jet fire, and a vapour cloud explosion (VCE) were modeled to establish fatality probability distances. Using probit functions and recognized industry models, the analysis determined the distances corresponding to 5%, 50%, and 95% fatality rates for each scenario. A population exposure assessment, incorporating day/night demographics and sheltering assumptions, estimated potential fatalities. For the BLEVE scenario, predicted fatalities were 158 during daytime and 32 at night, significantly higher than for jet fire or VCE scenarios. The study underscores the severe hazard posed by BLEVEs and highlights the critical role of robust, rehearsed on-site and off-site emergency plans in mitigating consequences. The methodology demonstrates the application of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) to inform safety distances and emergency response planning, while also acknowledging inherent uncertainties in such predictive models.References
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