Causality of the relationship between various indicators of external flows in Algeria: an analytical and measurement study for the period 1970 - 2018
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37375/esj.v3i3.2070Keywords:
External flows, correlation relationship, causal relationship, time series data, AlgeriaAbstract
This study aims to know the percentage of external flows in Algeria during the period from 1970 to 2018, as well as to measure the correlation and causal relationship between these different flows using time series data. We found through this study that there is a direct relationship between the percentage of workers' remittances abroad and foreign aid, while the relationship between the rests of the financial flows in Algeria turned out to be weak. On the other hand, it was found through this study that there is no two-way causation between the various financial flows in Algeria, and the causality was limited to one direction from foreign direct investment to foreign debt, from foreign aid to imports, and from exports to foreign aid
References
- سعيد عبد العزيز عثمان، مقدمة في الاقتصاد العام عامل الكتاب للنشر والتوزيع، الجزائر، 2004. سرمد كوكب الجميل، التمويل الدولي مدخل في الهياكل والعمليات والأدوات الدار النموذجية للطباعة والنشر، 2011. - عادل عبد الهادي، الموسوعة الاقتصادية، دار النهضة العربية، القاهرة، 1971، ص
- عمر صخري، التحليل الاقتصادي الكلي، ديوان المطبوعات الجامعية، الجزائر، 2005.
- خالد محمد السواعي، التجارة الدولية النظرية وتطبيقاتها، الطبعة الأولى، عامل الكتاب الحديث للنشر والتوزيع، الأردن. المصطلحات الاقتصادية: عربي فرنسي انجليزي، بيروت (لبنان): دار الفكر اللبناني 1997، ص 66.
خليل أحمد خليل، معجم ا
- Richard A Musgrave (1959), The Theory of Public Finance: A study in public economy, New York, McGraw-Hill.
ب بحوث ومقالات منشورة في دوريات:
- Al Akayleh, F. (2011), Labor migration, workers' remittances and economic activity: New instrumental variables for the effect of remittances, 28(3), 211 -224.
- Ali, S., Waqas, H., Asghar, M., Kalroo, R. A., Ayaz, M. and Khan, M. (2014), Foreign Capital and Investment in Pakistan: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis, Journal of Basic and Applied Scientific Research, 4(4), 217-226.
Ayanwale AB (2007), FDI and Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria, AERC research paper 165, Nairobi: AERC.
- Bandyopadhyay, S. Basistha, A. and Munemo, J. (2007), Foreign Aid and Export Performance: A Panel Data Analysis of Developing Countries, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Research Division, Working Paper 2007-023A, 1-23.
-
Breusch, T. S. (1978), Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models, Australian Economic Papers, 17: 334-355.
-- Christopher A. Sims (1972), Money, Income, and Causality, The American Economic Review, Vol. 62, No. 4, 540-552.
- Dickey, D. A., Fuller, W. A. (1979), Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time
Series with a Unit Root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74 (366): 427–431.
-
Ghulam Mujtaba Chaudhary, Shujahat Haider Hashm and Muhammad Asif Khan (2016), Exchange Rate and Foreign Trade: Comparative Study of Major South Asian and South-East Asian Countries, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 230, 85-96.
- Godfrey, L. G. (1978), Testing Against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models when the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables, Econometrica, 46: 1293– 1301.
Granger, C.W. (1969), Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross- spectral Methods, Econometrica, Vol. 37 (3), pp. 424-438.
-
Gu, Weishi & Awokuse, Titus O. & Yuan, Yan, 2008, The Contribution of Foreign Direct Investment to China's Export Performance: Evidence from Disaggregated Sectors, 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6453, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
Kang, J. S. Prati, A. and Rebucci, A. (2013), Aid, Exports, and Growth Aid, Exports, and Growth: A Time-Series Perspective on the Dutch Disease Hypothesis, IMF Working Paper WP/13/73, Research Department, 1-29.
-
Karl Pearson (1895), Notes on Regression and Inheritance in the Case of Two Parents, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, 58: 240–252.
-
Keshmeer Kanewar Makun (2018), Imports, Remittances, Direct Foreign Investment and Economic Growth in Republic of the Fiji Islands: An empirical analysis using ARDL approach, Kasetsart Journal of Social Sciences, Volume 39, Issue 3, 439-447.
-
Khalil, S. Husain, I. Memon, M.H. (2013), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Exports: A
Growth Nexus Revisited, International journal of Asian social science, 3(10), 2170-2182.
-
Khan, N. Z. and Rahim E. (1993), Foreign Aid, Domestic Savings and Economic Growth (Pakistan: 1960-1988), The Pakistan Development Review, 32(4), 1157-1167.
- Kumar, R.D. and Chandra P.P. (2013), FDI, Services Trade and Economic Growth in India: Empirical Evidence on Causal Links, Empirical Economics, 45(1), 217-238.
-
Lloyd, T. Morrissey, O. and Osei, R. (2001), Aid Exports and Growth in Ghana, CREDIT Research Paper, 1(1) 1-47.
-
Lehmann, F. N. Zarzoso, M. I. Cardozo, A. and Klasen, S. (2010), Foreign Aid and Recipient Countries Exports: Does Aid Promote Bilateral Trade?, No 206, Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
- Chenery, H. B. and Strout A. M. (1966), Foreign Assistance and Economic Development, The American Economic Review, 56(4), 679-773
