Predicting the exchange rate of the Libyan dinar against the US dollar during the period (2025-2030) using exponential smoothing methods

Abstract

The main objective of the research is to predict the official exchange rate of the Libyan dinar against the US dollar, expressed in the number of dinars per dollar, during the years 2025-2030 using the Holt-Winters added method of exponential smoothing as the best method among the various exponential smoothing methods due to its association with the lowest value of the sum of squares of residuals (SSR) and root mean square error (RMSE). The results of the forecast show that the official exchange rate of the Libyan dinar against the US dollar will take an upward pattern during the forecast period, which indicates the deterioration of the value of the Libyan dinar, which will negatively affect the standard of living of citizens and the Libyan balance of payments in light of the inflexibility of the productive system