The Interplay Between Political Instability and Inflation in Libya: A Structural Analysis (1990-2021)
التفاعل بين عدم الاستقرار السياسي والتضخم في ليبيا: تحليل هيكلي (1990-2021)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37375/sujh.v15i1.3333الكلمات المفتاحية:
Inflation,، Political Economy,، Conflict and Development,، Time Series Models,، Econometric Models.الملخص
التفاعل بين عدم الاستقرار السياسي والتضخم في ليبيا: تحليل هيكلي (1990-2021)
تبحث هذه الدراسة العلاقة بين عدم الاستقرار السياسي والتضخم في ليبيا خلال الفترة من 1990 إلى 2021، باستخدام نموذج الانحدار الذاتي الموزع على الفترات الزمنية المبطأة (ARDL) لتحليل الديناميكيات قصيرة وطويلة الأجل. تكشف النتائج عن وجود علاقة إيجابية ذات دلالة إحصائية بين عدم الاستقرار السياسي والتضخم، حيث تشمل الآليات الرئيسية تعطل سلاسل التوريد، وانخفاض قيمة العملة، والاختلالات المالية. تؤكد الدراسة على أهمية الاستقرار السياسي للإدارة السياسات الاقتصادية، وتقدم توصيات لصانعي السياسات الاقتصادي للتخفيف من ضغوط التضخم في الاقتصاد الليبي المعتمد على النفط.
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