Examining the Causal Relationship between Inflation Rate and Growth Rate of The Monetary Base in the Libyan Economy An Empirical Study for the Period (2004–2022)

Authors

  • Jenan Mohamed Al Derrat Assistant Lecturer, Department of International Trade, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, University of Misurata, Misurata, Libya
  • Abulgasem Yousef Bazina Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, University of Misurata, Misurata, Libya

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.37375/esj.v8i2.3581

Keywords:

Monetary Base, Inflation, Causality Relationship, Libyan Economy

Abstract

 

 This study aims to examine and analyses the causal relationship between inflation rate and growth rate of the monetary base in the Libyan economy during the period (2004–2022), using monthly data. The analysis investigates the extent of causal linkages, whether unidirectional or bidirectional, by applying the Toda–Yamamoto approach to identify long-run causality. The findings of the study reveal the existence of a unidirectional causal relationship running from inflation to the growth of the monetary base in the Libyan economy during the study period.

References

أولاً: المراجع العربية:

أبو عبودة، (2023). طبيعة العلاقة بين المعروض النقدي والقاعدة النقدية وسرعة دوران النقود في ليبيا خلال الفترة 2000-2020. مجلة شروس. 3

جبوري، محمد وبركة، محمد. (2014)، تأثير طبيعة نظام سعر الصرف على التضخم: تحليل العلاقة باستخدام بيانات بانل (Panal Data)، مجلة أداة المؤسسات الجزائرية، 06 (02): 25-37.

ثانيًا: المراجع الأجنبية:

Bahram, A., Arjun, C., Joseph, M., & Kambeez, R. (2016). The US monetary base and major world equity markets: An empirical investigation. Review of Economics and Finance, 6(3), 49-64.

Baumohl, E., & Lyocsa, S. (2009). Stationarity of Time Series and the Problem of Spurious Regression. University of Economics in Bratislava & Masaryk University.

Ben-Taher, Hasen A. (2021). A Theoretical Analysis of Money Supply for Libya. Āfāqiqtiṣādiyyaẗ Journal. 7[14]20-41.

https://afaq.elmergib.edu.ly/index.php/afaq/article/view/165/136

Breusch, T. S. (1978). Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models. Australian Economic Papers, 17(31), 334–355 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8454.1978.tb00045.x

Brendan, B. (2024). The qualities of the monetary base essential to sound money: Fiat and gold. Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics. https://doi.org/10.35297/qjae.010179

Congdon, T. (2023). Inflation: Causes, consequences, and theoretical perspectives. New York, NY: Routledge.

Crowder, W. J. (1998). The long-run link between money growth and inflation. Economic Inquiry, 36(2), 229-243. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.1998.tb00494.x

Edward, N. (2019). The monetary base in Allan Meltzer's analytical framework. Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2019.001

Fisher, I. (1911). The Purchasing Power of Money: Its Determination and Relation to Credit, Interest, and Crises. New York: Macmillan.

Fredrik, A. (2009). Monetary policy and inflation: A wavelet analysis of money growth and the purchasing power of money. Monetary Economics Journal.

Gafurdjan, Z. (2024). Inflation and its effects on consumer behavior and economic policies. QO ‘QON Universitesi Xabarnomasi, 10, 3-6.

Goodhart, C. (1989). Monetary base. In J. Eatwell, M. Milgate, & P. Newman (Eds.), Money (pp. 480-485). The New Palgrave. Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-19804-7_24

Haslag, J. H. (1990). Monetary growth and inflation: A theoretical analysis. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 22(4), 467–479. https://doi.org/10.2307/1992700

Jarque, C. M., & Bera, A. K. (1980). Efficient tests for normality, homoskedasticity, and serial independence of regression residuals. Economics Letters, 6(3), 255–259.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0165176580900245

John, C. W. (2012). Monetary policy, money, and inflation. FRBSF Economic Letter.

https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/el2012-21.pdf

John, F. B., & Talbor, K. E. (1993). Monetary base growth, deposit growth, and inflation in the postwar United States. Insurance Mathematics & Economics, 13, 67-76. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-6687(93)91054-X

Keynes, J. M. (1936). The general theory of employment, interest, and money. London, UK: Macmillan

https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/125515/1366_keynestheoryofemployment.pdf

Kimura, T., Kobayashi, H., Muranaga, J., & Ugai, H. (2003, September). The effect of the increase in the monetary base on Japan’s economy at zero interest rates: An empirical analysis. In Monetary Policy in a Changing Environment, Bank for International Settlements Conference Series (Vol. 19, pp. 276-312).

Khatat, M. E. H. (2019). Liquidity Management under Fixed Exchange Rate with Excess Liquidity. IMF Working Paper No. 2019/058. Retrieved from https://www.elibrary.imf.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/001/2019/058/article-A001-en.pdf

Liviu, C., Andrei, D., & Andrei, M. (2015). Another monetary inflation coordinate: Studies on the US Federal Reserves’ monetary base. Social Science Research Network.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2806608

Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-27752-1

Lucas, R. E. Jr. (1972). Expectations and the Neutrality of Money. Journal of Economic Theory, 4(2), 103-12

https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2018/06/lucas-lecture.pdf

Rehman, Muhammad. (2010). Money–Inflation Relationship: Band Spectrum Analysis Approach. Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, Vol. 20, pp. 67–76.

https://ideas.repec.org/a/pje/journl/article10v.html

Nuria, A. G. (2023). Inflation. In Handbook of Inflation (pp. 1-24). https://doi.org/10.4337/9781800377363.ch48

Pardomuan, R., Sihombing, A., Marsinta, A., Arsani, A., Satwika, A., & Rochman, A. (2022). Implementasi model panel var pada hubungan inflasi dan pertumbuhan jumlah uang beredar. Bayesian Journal, 2(2). https://doi.org/10.46306/bay.v2i2.34

White, H. (1980). A heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroskedasticity. Econometrica, 48(4), 817–838. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912934

Published

2025-10-01

How to Cite

Jenan Mohamed Al Derrat, & Abulgasem Yousef Bazina. (2025). Examining the Causal Relationship between Inflation Rate and Growth Rate of The Monetary Base in the Libyan Economy An Empirical Study for the Period (2004–2022). Economic Studies Journal, 8(2), 456–437. https://doi.org/10.37375/esj.v8i2.3581