العجز الداخلي والعجز الخارجي وتأثيرهما على قيمة الدينار الليبي خلال الفترة (1980 - 2020) دراسة تحليلية

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze and measure the relationship between the internal deficit and the external deficit and between the value of the national currency in the Libyan economy, in addition to studying the effects of the local exchange market rates of the Libyan dinar in the parallel market for foreign currencies and the political crisis on the value of the Libyan dinar, by analyzing The annual data from 1980 to 2020 for the Libyan economy, using the Distributed Time Gaps Linear Autoregressive Model Test (ARDL), and the study came to the conclusion that both the internal deficit and the external deficit contribute to the devaluation of the Libyan dinar, meaning that any increase in the deficit will lead to a decrease in the value of the Libyan dinar. The purchasing value of the national currency, in addition to the fact that the exchange rates in the parallel market for currencies were the main influence on the value of the Libyan dinar, it was found to have a positive impact on the general level of prices. The study also recommended using the inflation targeting system, addressing and developing the monetary system in the banking sector, as well as evaluating the start of the transition from the item budget to the goal budget so that the purpose of public expenditures is achieved and the internal deficit is alleviated.