ظاهرة العجز التؤام في الاقتصاد الليبي: اختبار العلاقة القصيرة والطويلة المدى بين عجز الموازنة وعجز الحساب الجاري في ليبيا
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37375/esj.v8i2.3582الكلمات المفتاحية:
الميزانية المالية، الميزان التجاري، عجز التوأم، الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الحقيقي، ، مؤشر أسعار المستهلك واختبارات وتقنيات (AFD, Causality tests، VECM، SVAR، IRF، ARDL وDV).الملخص
الدافع وراء هذه الورقة هو استكشاف العلاقة الديناميكية بين عجز الموازنة والعجز التجاري غير النفطي الحقيقي في ليبيا (ظاهره العجز التؤام) خلال الفترة 1984-2022 مع مراعاة العوامل الأخرى ذات الصلة بما في ذلك أسعار وعائدات النفط وسعر الصرف الحقيقي والناتج المحلي الإجمالي غير النفطي الحقيقي والأسعار المحلية في ليبيا. استخدمت هذه الدراسة تحليل قياسي معمق شمل استخدام طريقتين: الطريقة الأولى: SVAR للمدى القصير والمتوسط مع محاكاة دالة الاستجابة النبضية مستخدماً (Impulse response function) (IRF). الطريقة الثانية: ARDL مع بعض العلاقات المتكاملة للمدى الطويل من خلال اختبار حدود التكامل المشترك وتقنية التكامل المشترك (Counteraction bound test counteraction technique). نتائج هذه الدراسة كانت متسقه مع حيثيات نظرية العجز التوأم حيث قدمت ديناميكيات المدى القصير والطويل للمتغيرات قيد الدراسة دليلاً على وجود الارتباط بين العجز في الميزان التجاري غير النفطي والعجز في الموازنة المالية في ليبيا وفي ظل الوفرة من عائدات النفط والمتزامنة مع عدم كفاءه السياسة المالية حيث يتم إنفاق المزيد من عائدات النفط على الاستهلاك أكثر من الاستثمار (المتزامن مع النظام الضريبي الغير كفوء)، وهذا يؤدي في وقت لاحق إلى تفاقم العجز التجاري غير النفطي الحقيقي من خلال زيادة الإنفاق على السلع الاستهلاكية المستوردة نتيجة ضعف الناتج المحلي وضعف الصادرات المتأثرة بتقدير سعر الصرف التجاري (Trade exchange rate)([1]). وبالتالي تدعم الآثار المترتبة على السياسة في هذه الورقة الرأي القائل بأنه للحصول على تطور في الناتج المحلي والتجارة للقطاع غير النفطي يجب التركيز علي زيادة الإنفاق الحكومي على الاستثمار ليكون هو المحور الرئيسي لصناع السياسات.
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